The EU is aimÂing to launch three new milÂiÂtary misÂsions in West Africa after RusÂsia pushed Europe out of the CenÂtral African RepubÂlic (CAR) and Mali and threatÂens to do so in BurkÂiÂna Faso. The new misÂsions ought to be in BurkÂiÂna Faso, one of the Gulf of Guinea states, and in Niger accordÂing to a âstrateÂgic reviewâ paper by the EU forÂeign serÂvice datÂed 25 May and seen by EUobserver.
Niger slatÂed to host EU milÂiÂtary trainÂing misÂsion (PhoÂto: Jean Rebiffe)
The Niger misÂsion is the first to go ahead after NigeÂrien authorÂiÂties requestÂed an EU âlogisÂtic and mainÂteÂnance cenÂtre of excelÂlence in the vicinÂiÂty of Niameyâ, it said.
But the EU is keen âto go beyond this iniÂtial request to also covÂer a âtrain, equip and accomÂpaÂnyâ packÂage for speÂcifÂic units or even a full-scale milÂiÂtary operÂaÂtion to accomÂpaÂny NigeÂrien armed forces to combatâ.
BurkÂinÂabe armed forces âdurÂing disÂcusÂsions at techÂniÂcal levÂelâ asked the EU for a simÂiÂlar packÂage, the EU forÂeign serÂvice said.
But BurkÂiÂna Faso is playÂing a douÂble game, because it also sent a high-levÂel milÂiÂtary delÂeÂgaÂtion to Mali in mid-April and the EU susÂpects it disÂcussed using RussÂian merÂceÂnarÂies to fight jihadists the same way Mali has done.
âThe posÂsiÂbilÂiÂty of a repliÂcaÂtion of the Malian modÂel [in BurkÂiÂna Faso] and the use of RusÂsia-affilÂiÂatÂed forces canÂnot be ruled out,â the EU forÂeign serÂvice warned.
The Gulf of Guinea project is in its infancy.
But the EU forÂeign serÂvice spoke of creÂatÂing âa limÂitÂed milÂiÂtary footÂprint in one idenÂtiÂfied coastal stateâ that would host EU milÂiÂtary trainÂers who could carÂry out âbespokeâ misÂsions in the region.
The EU milÂiÂtary expanÂsion comes after RusÂsia pushed out French-led EuroÂpean forces from CAR last year and then Mali this year in what is increasÂingÂly lookÂing like an African front in RusÂsiÂaâs geopoÂlitÂiÂcal clash with the West.
The EU also hopes to creÂate its own rapid reacÂtion force by 2025 designed to fight in places such as the Sahel in what French presÂiÂdent Emmanuel Macron has chamÂpiÂoned as Europeâs âstrateÂgic autonomyâ.
The new EU force must be ready to go into comÂbat to defend Europeâs interÂests, the EU forÂeign serÂvice paper said.
EU counÂtries must âaccept the risks assoÂciÂatÂed with closÂer accomÂpaÂniÂment of partÂner forces closÂer to the comÂbat zoneâ, it said.
But for all Macron and the EU forÂeign serÂviceâs talk, RussÂian presÂiÂdent Vladimir Putinâs push into Françafrique risks makÂing the EU ambiÂtions appear like too litÂtle too late.
The EU foldÂed its CAR misÂsion in DecemÂber 2021 after KremÂlin-linked merÂceÂnarÂies from the WagÂnÂer group took comÂmand of EU-trained solÂdiers and comÂmitÂted atrocities.
It also susÂpendÂed its Mali milÂiÂtary and civilÂian trainÂing misÂsions in May after Mali brought in WagÂnÂer merÂceÂnarÂies to fight jihadists.
RepÂuÂtaÂtion damage
The EU pull-back was due âto preÂvent any repÂuÂtaÂtionÂal risk due to Malian defence and secuÂriÂty forces trained by the EU falling under the conÂtrol or engagÂing along of RusÂsia-affilÂiÂatÂed forces, as it had been observed in the cenÂtre of the counÂtryâ, the EU forÂeign serÂvice said.
The EU had fundÂed new milÂiÂtary camps in KonÂna, TominÂian, TimisÂsa, Sayed, and KoriÂentze in cenÂtral Mali and trained solÂdiers and genÂdarmes there in the past two years, the EU paper noted.
But âthe units (both NationÂal Guard and NationÂal GenÂdarmerie) in these posts, which were trained by EUCAP Sahel Mali [the EU misÂsion] priÂor to their deployÂment, are now under milÂiÂtary comÂmand and are inteÂgratÂed in joint operÂaÂtions with RusÂsia-affilÂiÂatÂed forces,â the EU paper noted.
âIt is also assessed that RusÂsia-affilÂiÂatÂed forces are gradÂuÂalÂly more present and influÂenÂtial at the strateÂgic levÂelâ in Malian milÂiÂtary cirÂcles, the EU warned.
And now Malian solÂdiers âtogethÂer with RusÂsia-affilÂiÂatÂed forcesâ were âterÂrorÂisÂing the popÂuÂlaÂtion with puniÂtive raids, tarÂgetÂing the Fulani comÂmuÂniÂty in parÂticÂuÂlarâ, the EU said.
âReports of vioÂlence on civilÂians have reached unpreceÂdentÂed levÂels,â it said. âIt is eviÂdent that RusÂsia-affilÂiÂatÂed forcesâ presÂence alongÂside the MAF [Malian Armed Forces] coinÂcides with seriÂous and sysÂtemÂatÂic human rights violationsâ.
The few EU milÂiÂtary and civilÂian trainÂers who are stayÂing on in Mali will do so to mainÂtain some conÂtact with Malian milÂiÂtary comÂmanÂders and keep an eye on RussÂian deployments.
âIt is assessed that about 1,000 RusÂsia-affilÂiÂatÂed perÂsonÂnel, mostÂly relyÂing on Malian equipÂment, are deployed in Mali, with a notable presÂence in SĂ©varĂ©, SĂ©gou, Niono, TimÂbukÂtu and GosÂsi in MAF camps,â the EU forÂeign serÂvice said.
âAir Base 101, in Bamako, is used as a logisÂtiÂcal hub for their deployÂment,â it added.
WagÂnÂerâs presÂence was accomÂpaÂnied by a disÂinÂforÂmaÂtion camÂpaign which aimed at âdeflectÂing attenÂtion from RusÂsia-affilÂiÂatÂed forces atrocÂiÂties against civilÂiansâ and conÂtained anti-French âpan-AfricanÂistâ ideÂolÂoÂgy, it noted.
And all that was takÂing place amid potenÂtialÂly lucraÂtive Malian minÂerÂal reserves as well as dire poverÂty and inseÂcuÂriÂty for ordiÂnary peoÂple â 6 milÂlion of whom needÂed food aid in a counÂtry where one in five schools are closed.
Not enough
LookÂing back to CAR, the counÂtry has become so closeÂly tied to RusÂsia that it now teachÂes RussÂian in its schools and offered Putin to send fightÂers to Ukraine.
But if the RussÂian leader wantÂed to fulÂly repliÂcate his CAR sucÂcess in Mali, he might have to comÂmit more resources than at present, the EU forÂeign serÂvice said.
Jihadist attacks against Malian camps in March and April showed that âaround 1,000 RusÂsia-affilÂiÂatÂed forces along with the MAF are not enough to clear and hold the cenÂtre of the counÂtryâ, the EU paper noted.
âThe susÂtainÂabilÂiÂty of the RussÂian supÂport to Mali in the curÂrent globÂal enviÂronÂment is also quesÂtionÂable,â the EU added, referÂring to Putinâs milÂiÂtary lossÂes on his priÂmaÂry batÂtleÂfields in Ukraine.
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