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LONDON — Foreign policy never wins elections, as the old political maxim goes.
So eight months out from polling day in America, it’s hardly surprising that domestic reaction to Thursday’s State of the Union speech will be dominated by arguments over the economy, drug prices and the frailty of U.S. President Joe Biden, 82 this November.
But in Europe there is only one word on the minds of officials, diplomats and politicians ahead of the speech — Ukraine.
Around a dozen senior figures from across the Continent who spoke to POLITICO all urged Biden to use his State of the Union address to push Congress to finally pass his $60 billion military aid package for Kyiv.
“It is a delicate, difficult situation,” said one U.K. government official. “We would like to see anything that can be done to convince lawmakers to get it over the line.” Like others in this story, they were granted anonymity to speak candidly about diplomacy.
“That will be the most important thing to look out for” in Biden’s speech, an EU diplomat agreed, “even though we know that the problem is not with him.”
Another European diplomat said while ambassadors recognize the focus of the speech will be domestic, they will be “watching closely for President Biden making the case for the importance of American leadership in the world.” Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of recently deceased Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, was invited but was unable to attend.
The second diplomat quoted above added: “Allies don’t doubt the administration’s resolve — but are concerned that what six months ago were fringe isolationist conservative opinions are becoming mainstream.”
‘Shadow of Trump’
That evokes another, whispered concern — the possibility of Donald Trump’s returning as U.S. president in 2025, a prospect that adds urgency to this year’s speech. Europe’s political elites largely hope Biden can cast off concerns about his age and physical frailty, and project strength.
Christopher Weissberg, an MP in French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, said he hoped Biden will “build a central bloc and project himself as the last bastion for U.S. democracy.” He added: “We hope for a political speech that sets out that behind the stakes in Ukraine, it’s our civilization that is at stake.”
Alicia Kearns, chair of the U.K. parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said: “The most positive action the White House could take would be to pull itself out of the shadow of Trump and redouble its efforts to defeat Putin’s aggression.”
European politicians and officials are increasingly reluctant to express public support for Biden’s reelection bid — but most foreign policy analysts agree that behind the scenes, the vast majority in Europe are desperately hoping Trump does not return.
Sophia Gaston, head of foreign policy and U.K. resilience at the London-based Policy Exchange think tank, said: “There’s no doubt Whitehall will be praying for a strong showing from Biden in the face of an ascendant Trump. But even without Trump in the White House, Congress is causing plenty of headaches.
“Britain will want to see a tactical and sharp-eyed Biden … We will want to see the president making a convincing case for American internationalism.”
Some observe that fears of a second Trump presidency have an air of fatalism about them.
“We shouldn’t make the mistake of declaring Trump a premature winner, or even subscribing to this idea,” German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said on Wednesday.
But for others it’s already too late. Ex-Tory Minister Tim Loughton told the BBC that Biden “frankly needs to read the room — it’s time to go home to the cocoa and slippers” and give way to a “strong, credible, moderate” candidate for president.
‘Everyone is missing the point’
U.K. opposition leader Keir Starmer, widely expected to become the country’s prime minister later this year, once called himself “anti-Trump” — but now plays down their differences. U.K. Labour politicians have been meeting with both Democrats and Republicans to maintain the so-called special relationship between their nations.
One Labour shadow minister said Biden should use his speech to “lay down a strong challenge to Congress.” They added: “There are Republicans who want to pass this and people who believe it would pass if it can just get to the floor.”
But a second shadow minister in Starmer’s team warned that European security faced long-term problems, whoever is in the White House. “Everyone who talks about support for Ukraine under Trump is missing the point that the big focus is China, for both Biden and Trump,” they said.
“People sometimes hear Democrats say ‘China, China, China, China, Russia’ — and they only hear the ‘Russia’ bit. Whoever wins the U.S. election, we’re going to need to learn to stand more on our own two feet.”
Gaza aid talks ‘not getting anywhere’
Europe urgently wants the White House to weigh in on one other matter — Gaza, including the need to pressure Israel over its bombing campaign, and the shortage of aid flowing to the strip.
The first EU diplomat quoted above said ambassadors would be hoping Biden mentions the Middle East war — as well as China and global trade — in Thursday’s speech. “These are all issues where U.S. actions have an influence on the EU,” they said.
“We’ve been calling for weeks and weeks for the five things we want Israel to do and we don’t feel like we are getting anywhere with it,” sighed the first U.K. government official quoted above. “There are half as many aid trucks going in now as there were before.”
Foreign Secretary David Cameron warned the U.K.’s patience was running “thin” ahead of a meeting with Israeli Minister Benny Gantz in London on Wednesday.
The frustrated U.K. official said some Israeli officials do not “really understand the level of domestic political heat that their allies are taking” over the war.
“We’re looking for whatever opportunities we can [find] to underline our ask to the Israelis,” they added. “Fundamentally, it’s a political decision they are making to restrict aid into Gaza.”
Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris, and Hans von der Burchard from Berlin. Nahal Toosi reported from Washington and Barbara Moens from Brussels.
