Fear, joy and calls for a strong Europe: France reacts to Trump win

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PARIS — A cen­tu­ry of straw polls at the icon­ic Harry’s Bar in Paris have accu­rate­ly called almost every U.S. elec­tion. This Novem­ber was no dif­fer­ent. The tal­lies dis­played on the bar’s win­dow on a chilly Wednes­day morn­ing were anoth­er reminder of Don­ald Trump’s deci­sive vic­to­ry — with uncer­tain con­se­quences for France and Europe.

Even as some French cel­e­brate the for­mer president’s come­back to the White House, oth­ers fear its reper­cus­sions and won­der whether their coun­try will fol­low the same right­ward tilt in its own 2027 pres­i­den­tial elections.

“I guess we’re dis­ap­point­ed but unfor­tu­nate­ly not sur­prised,” said free­lance pro­duc­er and Paris res­i­dent Char­lotte Dan­gle­gan. “The fas­cist pow­ers are tak­ing more and more impor­tance, and it’s the same case in France.”

Not every­one sees it that way. On social media plat­form X, right-wing French politi­cian Eric Ciot­ti salut­ed Trump’s vic­to­ry as “a mag­nif­i­cent vic­to­ry against a sys­tem, a hope for peace and a defeat for wokists.”

David Gil, a mem­ber of the far-right Nation­al Ral­ly Par­ty is also pleased.

“For us, it’s good news,” he said. “But it’s a bit ear­ly to see what it means for France.”

French Pres­i­dent Emmanuel Macron was an ear­ly bird in con­grat­u­lat­ing Trump — send­ing his wish­es to work “for more peace and pros­per­i­ty,” before the Republican’s win was offi­cial­ly confirmed.

But Macron fol­lowed that mes­sage with anoth­er on X, declar­ing he and Ger­man Chan­cel­lor Olaf Scholz want­ed to work “for a Europe more unit­ed, stronger, more sov­er­eign in this new context.”

French gov­ern­ment offi­cials echoed sim­i­lar themes, reflect­ing Macron’s long­stand­ing push for beef­ing up Europe’s mil­i­tary and oth­er defenses.

“We need to find ways to work on our com­mon inter­ests, but fun­da­men­tal­ly, the answer lies with us,” Euro­pean Affairs Min­is­ter Ben­jamin Had­dad told France Inter radio.

Euro­peans, he said, “can’t accept that their secu­ri­ty will be decid­ed with­out them, that tomor­row a capit­u­la­tion will be imposed on Ukraini­ans with­out them, with­out the Europeans.”

Cool­ing relations

Macron struck up ini­tial­ly cor­dial rela­tions with Trump dur­ing his first term in office, marked by the U.S. president’s vis­it to Paris in 2017 dur­ing Bastille Day cel­e­bra­tions. But ties cooled over dif­fer­ences on trade, cli­mate change and Iran. Now, there are oth­er areas of dis­agree­ment, includ­ing the future of Ukraine and sup­port for NATO.

“It’s real­ly time for us to wake up and do some­thing,” said Jean-Yves Camus, an ana­lyst at the Jean Jau­res Foun­da­tion in Paris. “Because if we do not have the mil­i­tary capac­i­ty to weigh in on Ukraine and the Mid­dle East, then we are depen­dent on what Wash­ing­ton will do.”

For their part, French busi­ness­es are wor­ried about the poten­tial impact of Trump’s promised tar­iffs on imports, which could affect indus­tries such as bev­er­ages and aero­nau­tics. Still, observers say, France is less exposed to a poten­tial trade war than oth­er coun­tries, includ­ing neigh­bor­ing Germany.

Walk­ing near Harry’s Bar, phone sales­man Cameron Oril­ia said he had not been close­ly fol­low­ing the U.S. pres­i­den­tial campaign.

“I hope things will work out for busi­ness” dur­ing Trump’s term, he said, “that cus­toms will work out. I’m just look­ing at the eco­nom­ic side of the politics.”

Wake-up call?

But oth­er Paris res­i­dents are wor­ried about the polit­i­cal side.

“I feel a bit scared,” said Lucy Bone, a Briton who has lived in Paris for 25 years. “I’m think­ing [about] what hap­pened to all our democ­ra­cies? We are now going to be in a world that’s dri­ven by dictators.”

As with Amer­i­cans, the French are wor­ried about high prices and immi­gra­tion — themes that cat­a­pult­ed Trump to vic­to­ry. The hard-right Nation­al Ral­ly emerged on top of both of France’s Euro­pean and par­lia­men­tary elec­tions this year. Today it holds the most seats of any par­ty in the low­er house — although not the majority.

Some believe Trump’s elec­tion may set a prece­dent for Nation­al Ral­ly leader Marine Le Pen to do the same in 2027. Still, Le Pen has been cau­tious in react­ing to anoth­er four years under Trump, who remains high­ly con­tro­ver­sial in France.

“The only thing I think about is France’s inter­est and Europe’s inter­est,” she told reporters Wednes­day. Under a Trump pres­i­den­cy that defends U.S. inter­ests, “Europe has got to wake up” and do the same.

“Le Pen has been very, very strong in say­ing that Nation­al Ral­ly mem­bers of par­lia­ment should not sup­port Pres­i­dent Trump, should not take sides in this elec­tion,” Camus said, “for fear that the bad image of Pres­i­dent Trump would dam­age her own chance of becom­ing president.”