Optimism grows as Niger holds convention on transition plans

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ABUJA, NIGERIA — Niger is set to hold a nation­al con­ven­tion to map out its long-await­ed polit­i­cal tran­si­tion fol­low­ing the July 2023 coup that deposed Pres­i­dent Mohamed Bazoum. Jun­ta leader, Gen­er­al Abdoura­hamane Tchi­ani, says the dia­logue will be inclu­sive, set gov­er­nance pri­or­i­ties and deter­mine the tran­si­tion timeline. 

Niger’s mil­i­tary announced on state tele­vi­sion last Sat­ur­day that the nation­al con­ven­tion will take place from Feb­ru­ary 15–19. 

Author­i­ties said the meet­ing is expect­ed to pro­duce a pre­lim­i­nary draft of the tran­si­tion charter. 

Jun­ta leader Gen­er­al Abdoura­hamane Tchi­ani had ini­tial­ly com­mit­ted to a three-year tran­si­tion after seiz­ing pow­er from Pres­i­dent Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023. But months of silence on the issue fueled uncer­tain­ty among Nige­riens and inter­na­tion­al observers. 

Ibrahim Faruk, pro­gram coor­di­na­tor for the African divi­sion at Yia­ga Africa, said the con­ven­tion is a step in the right direction. 

“This sig­nals the begin­ning of the time­line for a tran­si­tion to a demo­c­ra­t­i­cal­ly elect­ed gov­ern­ment in the Repub­lic of Niger,” said Faruk. “I think why this is impor­tant is that demo­c­ra­t­ic sta­bil­i­ty in the West African sub­re­gion has a way of cre­at­ing a rip­ple effect. We saw how once there were coups and attempt­ed coups in some of these coun­tries, it caused a rip­ple effect. But beyond just a return to [a] demo­c­ra­t­ic gov­ern­ment, it must also pro­vide the promise of devel­op­ment that comes with democ­ra­cy as well.” 

Ahead of the con­ven­tion, author­i­ties held con­sul­ta­tions across Niger’s eight regions and formed a nation­al com­mis­sion to over­see the dialogue. 

At the end of the meet­ing, the com­mis­sion is expect­ed to sub­mit a final report to Tchi­ani with­in three weeks. 

The July 2023 coup trig­gered wide­spread con­dem­na­tion, includ­ing threats of mil­i­tary inter­ven­tion from the region­al Eco­nom­ic Com­mu­ni­ty of West African States, known as ECOWAS. 

Niger’s polit­i­cal cri­sis reflects a broad­er trend in the Sahel, where mil­i­tary takeovers have become more fre­quent amid esca­lat­ing jihadist threats and grow­ing resent­ment toward civil­ian governments. 

Faruk believes Niger could set a pos­i­tive example. 

“Mali, Niger and Burk­i­na Faso, who have wit­nessed uncon­sti­tu­tion­al change of gov­ern­ment — I think one com­mon thread that has been run­ning through these three coun­tries is that there has­n’t been adher­ence to pre­vi­ous­ly agreed tran­si­tion time­lines.” said Faruk. “[So,] I hope that with this step in the Repub­lic of Niger, it will sig­nal to their broth­ers in Mali and Burk­i­na Faso that indeed there’s an impor­tance to return back to demo­c­ra­t­i­cal­ly elect­ed government.” 

Mali and Burk­i­na Faso, both under mil­i­tary rule, have extend­ed their tran­si­tion time­lines, despite ini­tial­ly pledg­ing a quick­er return to democracy. 

Mal­i’s mil­i­tary attrib­ut­es the delay to a sec­ond coup in 2021, just months after over­throw­ing Pres­i­dent Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. 

Burk­i­na Faso’s jun­ta post­poned elec­tions, cit­ing secu­ri­ty concerns. 

Polit­i­cal ana­lyst Ahmed Buhari said a tran­si­tion plan is a good step, but “it’s very impor­tant for us Africans to know that we can­not copy and paste an entire sys­tem and expect it to work with dif­fer­ent cul­tur­al views, val­ues and norms,” he said. “And that is why I think that we’re strug­gling as a con­ti­nent to find sta­bil­i­ty, eco­nom­ic growth, secu­ri­ty, and most impor­tant­ly, iden­ti­ty for our peo­ple. Dif­fer­ent democ­ra­cies will work for dif­fer­ent peo­ple around the world. We must cre­ate a demo­c­ra­t­ic envi­ron­ment that is suit­able for our cur­rent real­i­ties and challenges.” 

Crit­ics warn that pro­longed mil­i­tary rule remains a strong pos­si­bil­i­ty in the Sahel.