KYIV — Four senior members of Donald Trump’s entourage have held secret discussions with some of Kyiv’s top political opponents to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, just as Washington aligns with Moscow in seeking to lever the Ukrainian president out of his job.
The senior Trump allies held talks with Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, a remorselessly ambitious former prime minister, and senior members of the party of Petro Poroshenko, Zelenskyy’s immediate predecessor as president, according to three Ukrainian parliamentarians and a U.S. Republican foreign policy expert.
The discussions centered on whether Ukraine could hold quick presidential elections. These are being delayed in line with the country’s constitution because Ukraine remains under martial law. Critics of holding elections say they could be chaotic and play into Russia’s hands, with so many potential voters serving on the front lines or living abroad as refugees.
The Trump aides are confident that Zelenskyy would lose any vote due to war fatigue and public frustration over rampant corruption. Indeed, his poll ratings have been in decline for years, although they have picked up in the wake of last week’s Oval Office brawl, when the Ukrainian leader was shown the door after being berated by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. The most recent poll shows Zelenskyy still comfortably ahead in the race for the presidency.
The official line from the U.S. administration is that Trump is not interfering in Ukraine’s domestic politics. This week, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick denied his boss was “weighing into Ukrainian politics,” adding all that Trump wants is a partner for peace.
But the behavior of Trump and his officials suggests quite the opposite. Trump has accused Zelenskyy of being a “dictator without elections,” and hinted he would not be “around very long” if he didn’t do a deal with Russia. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has falsely accused Kyiv of canceling the election. (In response to the news in this article, Elon Musk tweeted: “Ukraine needs to hold an election. Zelensky would lose by a landslide.”)
But while the Trump camp may hope an election will sink Zelenskyy, he is still massively more popular than Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.
In a poll conducted by British pollster Survation this week after the blow-up at the White House, 44 percent said they would back Zelenskyy for the presidency.
His nearest rival, trailing him by more than 20 percentage points, is Valery Zaluzhny, a former army commander who is now Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain. Only 10 percent backed Poroshenko, who is known as the Chocolate King due to his confectionary empire. Tymoshenko garnered just 5.7 percent support.
Back channels
The key to all of the plans under discussion via back channels is to hold presidential elections after a temporary ceasefire is agreed, but before full-scale peace negotiations get underway in earnest. The idea of an early presidential election is also being pushed by the Kremlin, which has wanted to be rid of Zelenskyy for years.
Both Tymoshenko and Poroshenko have publicly opposed holding elections before the fighting ends, as has Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. Nonetheless, “Poroshenko’s people and Yulia, they’re all talking to Trump World, positioning themselves as people who would be easier to work with. And people who would consent to many of the things that Zelenskyy is not agreeing to,” a top Republican foreign policy expert told POLITICO, asking that his name be withheld so he could speak freely.
After publication of this story, the parties of both Tymoshenko and Poroshenko issued statements to defend their diplomatic activities. Tymoshenko said her team was negotiating “with all our allies who can help ensure a just peace as soon as possible.” She added it was currently impossible to hold elections.
Poroshenko said: “We work publicly and transparently with American partners, aiming to preserve bipartisan support of Ukraine.” He added that he had repeatedly offered to coordinate contacts with Zelenskyy’s office and invited the Ukrainian ambassador to Washington to participate. “We have repeatedly spoken publicly about the lack of communication in the ruling team with the U.S. administration, which poses a risk to the state,” he added.
He continued: “The essence of our conversations with representatives of the American side has always been down to two principles — security first and peace through strength. Namely weapons, intelligence, sanctions against Russia, financial support, democratic resilience (freedom and democracy), transatlantic unity. Our team has always been and is adamant against elections during a war.”
POLITICO also reached out to the four members of Trump’s entourage mentioned as being involved in the discussions, but received no immediate reply.
For days now, Trump cabinet officials have suggested Zelenskyy should step aside unless he comes fully on board with the U.S. plan to end the war rapidly, even if it involves major concessions by Ukraine.
Since last Friday’s explosive clash at the White House, the Zelenskyy-should-go theme has only intensified with the Ukrainian leader’s domestic political opponents indicating publicly, albeit subtly, that Ukraine’s relations with Washington are all-important and must be restored. That is being viewed in Kyiv as implied criticism of Zelenskyy, who has now said he regrets last week’s fiery confrontation and is ready to work with Trump toward peace.
“We are seeing some political factions starting to move,” said Ruslan Bortnik, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics. “They’re trying to establish informal connections or use the connections they have with the Republican Party or Trump’s entourage and to indicate their willingness to work with Washington,” he told POLITICO.
“They are also signaling publicly, too, although their words are very soft. But they’re displaying independent behavior to show Trump they’re ready to play his game.”
“The elites are feeling very disoriented and shocked because they understand very clearly that without United States support, Ukraine will be defeated,” Bortnik added.
Several party and factional leaders have made statements this week saying the priority for Ukraine must be to repair relations with Trump.
They include Ruslan Stefanchuk, chairman of Ukraine’s parliament and a member of Zelenskyy’s ruling party, as well as Dmytro Razumkov, who led the party to its 2019 parliamentary victory but currently serves as an independent lawmaker. Razumkov has demanded an urgent parliamentary session to set up a special legislative group to oversee relations with the United States.
Trump’s decision this week to pause military aid to Ukraine has only added to the political alarm here and has boosted the back-channeling by Ukraine’s politicians with Trump World.
On Monday, Trump growled that Zelenskyy “won’t be around very long” if progress isn’t made on a peace deal that satisfies him. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said Washington needed “a leader that can deal with us, eventually deal with the Russians, and end this war.”
The U.S. president’s Capitol Hill allies have also maintained a drum beat against Zelenskyy, with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham suggesting Ukraine would “need to get somebody new” unless Zelenskyy comes to see things the way Trump does.
All of that is prompting Zelenskyy’s domestic political opponents and even some former allies to pay court to Trump World to gain its blessing. “They’re positioning themselves as the best people to work with. And people who would consent to many of the things that Zelensky isn’t consenting to,” the Republican expert said.
“I believe Trump doesn’t care about whether Ukraine has elections or not. It’s Putin’s narrative, Putin’s goal. Trump is being used by Putin to impose elections on Ukraine with only one purpose, to undermine us from within. He wants to remove Zelenskyy because he is a symbol of our resistance. Putin understands that an election campaign during times of war will be destructive for our unity and for our stability,” he said.
Poaching parliamentarians
The tremors from the Oval Office bust-up are also triggering talk of parliamentary realignments.
Tymoshenko has in recent weeks been approaching lawmakers in rival parties to try to persuade them to defect and join her faction. She has told the lawmakers she’s been looking to poach that in her view, Zelenskyy will have no choice but to call elections soon, providing a golden opportunity to shape a new parliamentary majority.
Zelenskyy himself has dismissed the notion he’ll step down and joked with reporters in London over the weekend that even if elections were held this year, he’d likely win. “You would have to prevent me from participating in the elections,” he said, before suggesting, as he has previously, that he would only resign if Ukraine received NATO membership, as that would mean his mission was fulfilled.
On the face of it, Trump’s attacks haven’t weakened Zelenskyy, who initially received widespread praise, even from critics, for standing his ground in the Oval Office. But the predictable rally-round-the-leader effect is wearing off as the potential repercussions of the breakdown between Kyiv and Washington are absorbed, Bortnik said. The politics of the country is highly fluid, he argued.
Public opinion is also starting to shift regarding the war, with around a quarter of the population, largely comprising the military and their relatives, wanting the war to continue until the Russians have been ejected from all of Ukraine. But two-thirds of the population are more focused on talks and want the war to end — with half of those prepared to accept major concessions by Ukraine, and the other half eager for an immediate ceasefire, according to an analysis of polling data by Bortnik’s institute.
This story has been updated to include new statements from Tymoshenko and Poroshenko.
