Experts Warn of Civil War in Cameroon

Beyond aca­d­e­m­ic and diplo­mat­ic cir­cles, many have not heard of the Inter­na­tion­al Cri­sis Group or Cri­sis Group. The Brus­sels-based non-gov­ern­men­tal orga­ni­za­tion, tracks and warns of the poten­tial of con­flict in nations around the world. The group is high­ly respect­ed and often quot­ed in news reports due to their thor­ough research.

Just before the Arab Spring took hold in the Mid­dle East and North Africa, the Cri­sis Group made a dire warn­ing about Cameroon.

In its report 160 of May, 2010, the group stat­ed, “Cameroon’s appar­ent sta­bil­i­ty is decep­tive; even if it over­comes its near-term chal­lenges, the longer-term dete­ri­o­ra­tion could lead to conflict.”

Cameroon is often praised for being a sta­bi­liz­ing force in an unsta­ble region that has seen its share of war and cat­a­stro­phes. Often the gov­ern­ment argues the calm the coun­try enjoys is the result of its pres­i­dent. While Cameroon remains peace­ful, sev­er­al unsuc­cess­ful mil­i­tary coups have been made in an attempt to remove its top leadership.

With a “sit-tight” lead­er­ship, the oppo­si­tion remains weak and divid­ed. Many polit­i­cal oppo­nents are in prison or have escaped the coun­try. The youth pop­u­la­tion is large and many are unemployed.

The Cri­sis Group report was pro­duced pri­or to the 2011 pres­i­den­tial elec­tions, which long-time pres­i­dent, Paul Biya, won by an esti­mat­ed 77.9 per­cent. Biya, 83, has been in pow­er since Ahmadou Ahid­jo, the country’s first pres­i­dent, resigned from office in 1982.

After the con­sti­tu­tion was amend­ed in 2008 to allow Biya to run for office in per­pe­tu­ity, the change led to protests and the death of many civilians.

In anoth­er report about Cameroon, report 101 of Sep­tem­ber 2014, the Cri­sis Group, harped again on what it saw as “a decep­tive peace and sta­bil­i­ty in the coun­try.” The report said this is some­thing that belied the country’s inter­nal and exter­nal pres­sures. This could threat­en its future, the report stated.

Since 2010, the country’s neigh­bor, the Cen­tral African Repub­lic (CAR) has expe­ri­enced civ­il war, part­ly caused by inter­nal divi­sions. Hun­dreds of CAR cit­i­zens were killed or became refugees flee­ing from the con­flict. Many of these refugees took refuge in the east­ern parts of Cameroon.

The Uneasy Peace That Reigns in Cameroon

Recent­ly the Cameroon­ian gov­ern­ment has been bat­tling Boko Haram mil­i­tants in the north of the coun­try. As a result, the Unit­ed States admin­is­tra­tion gave assis­tance to the gov­ern­ment to help deal with the sit­u­a­tion, out of fear the insur­gency could desta­bi­lize the region.

These dire warn­ings about Cameroon, not giv­en in hind­sight, are impor­tant and need fur­ther examination.

The country’s unique geopo­lit­i­cal posi­tion in the region–which experts have com­pared to that of Turkey, Ukraine, and Mexico–is espe­cial­ly impor­tant and could impact the entire region if peace in the coun­try is compromised.

“Since Biya assumed pow­er in 1982, the prime min­is­ter has been an Anglo­phone, the pres­i­dent a south­ern­er, and the pres­i­dent of the nation­al assem­bly a north­ern­er. The recent cre­ation of the Sen­ate in 2013 added anoth­er south­ern­er to that triumvirate—disturbing the bal­ance of pow­er,” project direc­tor for Cen­tral Africa at the Cri­sis Group Thier­ry Vir­coulon wrote in sum­mer of 2015.

“If Cameroon were to enter a cri­sis, this would cre­ate an axis of insta­bil­i­ty stretch­ing from north­ern Nige­ria to South Sudan, pass­ing through Chad and the CAR. The Cen­tral Africa region would then become a major focus of con­cern,” Vir­coulon said.

With only Ahid­jo, from the north, and Biya, from the south, hav­ing served as pres­i­dent in over 50 years of inde­pen­dence, things need to be panned. With­out prop­er suc­ces­sion plan­ning, a bit­ter pow­er strug­gle could ensue, post-Biya, the Group warns. In its reports, the Group pro­posed many reforms for the gov­ern­ment to car­ry out if it wants to escape poten­tial­ly dif­fi­cult sit­u­a­tions in the future.

A few of the reforms dis­cussed in the 2010 report, such as the cre­ation of a Sen­ate to fill a con­sti­tu­tion­al void, have been accom­plished. But it believes a com­bi­na­tion of “oth­er fac­tors” remain which pose severe dan­gers to the future of the country.

While it did not men­tion the so-called “Anglo­phone Prob­lem” direct­ly in its many reports, the Group how­ev­er point­ed to a grow­ing rift between the Biya regime and the rest of the soci­ety in Cameroon. Some of what it calls “inter­nal divi­sions” may have mor­phed into these vul­ner­a­bil­i­ties and chal­lenges for peace and sta­bil­i­ty that we are see­ing in the country.

The his­to­ry of Cameroon is marked by sev­er­al key polit­i­cal events that under­pin the cur­rent cri­sis. This his­to­ry is not the main pur­pose of this post, but let’s take a cur­so­ry look at it, to add some per­spec­tive to the enor­mi­ty of the situation.

In 1961, South­ern Cameroons (British Cameroon or today’s Anglo­phone Cameroon) was a Unit­ed Nations trust ter­ri­to­ry or colony under Great Britain.  When it sought self-deter­mi­na­tion, it was giv­en the option to decide if it want­ed to join La Republique du Camer­oun (French Cameroon and neigh­bor to the east) or to join Nige­ria (neigh­bor to the west) both of which were already independent.

The deci­sion to pick a side was placed before South­ern Cameroons in a plebiscite orga­nized by the Unit­ed Nations on Feb­ru­ary 11, 1961.

Writ­ing in Cameroon His­to­ry in the 19^th and 20^th Cen­turies, his­to­ri­ans, Taz­i­for Tajoche John and Tabi James Ndip, state that this was “a do or die game.”

South­ern Cameroons chose to join with La Republique du Camer­oun and formed what became known as the Fed­er­al Repub­lic of Cameroon in Octo­ber 1961. That fed­er­a­tion result­ed in West Cameroon (today’s Anglo­phone Cameroon) with a British her­itage and Anglo-Sax­on way of life, and East Cameroon (today’s Fran­coph­o­ne Cameroon) with its inher­it­ed French sys­tem or way of life.

There is a nev­er-end­ing argu­ment about if and why South­ern Cameroons was nev­er giv­en the option to become an inde­pen­dent coun­try on its own. What would have hap­pened to South­ern Cameroons if they had oth­er options, the ques­tion often goes. Some may ask, ‘Who is to blame for what they now endure in this present rela­tion­ship with La Repub­lic du Cameroun?’

Cameroon Youth Day is cel­e­brat­ed each Feb­ru­ary 11, the day the Plebiscite took place. The new coun­try was formed under a fed­er­al con­sti­tu­tion when the two states came together.

In May 1972, via a ref­er­en­dum held in both East and West Cameroon; the coun­try decid­ed to go in a new direc­tion. The fed­er­a­tion was abol­ished by then-Pres­i­dent Ahid­jo. This action trans­formed the coun­try into a uni­tary state called the Unit­ed Repub­lic of Cameroon. That changed in 1984 to what is now The Repub­lic of Cameroon.

May 20, the day the Ref­er­en­dum took place, is cel­e­brat­ed as Cameroon Nation­al Day.

To con­sum­mate the union of East and West Cameroon, the gov­ern­ment has pro­mot­ed poli­cies aimed at nation­al uni­ty and inte­gra­tion. Nation­al Inte­gra­tion is defined as efforts to pro­vide edu­ca­tion to Cameroo­ni­ans in a bi-lin­gual fash­ion. The use of both lan­guages, Eng­lish and French, has been made a way of life for the country.

Cameroon Enters the Spotlight 

For more than two decades, many Anglo­phones have resist­ed what is seen as the “adul­ter­ation” of the cul­ture they inher­it­ed from their colo­nial mas­ter. They have pushed back against gov­ern­ment efforts that they say under­val­ues Eng­lish while mak­ing French the main lan­guage of the coun­try. They say this has erod­ed many Anglo-Sax­on tra­di­tions that are expressed in their edu­ca­tion­al sys­tem and culture.

The divi­sion is encap­su­lat­ed in a com­plex dynam­ic sur­round­ing the “The Anglo­phone Prob­lem.” The prob­lem goes beyond the country’s his­to­ry to the legal­i­ty of the union and the co-exis­tence of the French and Eng­lish cul­tures and languages.

Accord­ing to the schol­ar, George Ngwane, the issue stems from what he says is the vio­la­tion of Arti­cle 47 of the 1961 Fed­er­al Con­sti­tu­tion of the coun­try which dis­man­tled the fed­er­al struc­ture of West and East Cameroon. Ngwane says the issue has led to the cur­rent prob­lems which Anglo­phones face in the country.

Writ­ing in the Decem­ber 2016 issue of World Pol­i­tics Review free­lance jour­nal­ist, Rob­bie Corey-Boulet notes that “Res­i­dents of Anglo­phone Cameroon have long com­plained that resources from their ter­ri­to­ry, includ­ing oil, are used to finance devel­op­ment in Fran­coph­o­ne areas of the coun­try while they are left to suf­fer from a lack of invest­ment and attention.”

In recent years the Youth Day and Nation­al Day, once cel­e­brat­ed with pride and dig­ni­ty, have been marked by boy­cotts inspired by Anglo­phone pres­sure groups that have formed to resist what they see as the fraud rela­tion­ship between the two sys­tems in Cameroon.

For years–Anglophones in Cameroon and abroad have peti­tioned the Unit­ed Nations, The African Com­mis­sion on Human Rights, and even the British gov­ern­ment which was direct­ly involved in the deci­sion about their state­hood. But the case has not advanced very much. It remains in lim­bo. Frus­tra­tions are now run­ning high.

But Fran­coph­o­nes remain the major­i­ty in Cameroon. Eight of the country’s ten regions prac­tice the French civ­il law while the two Anglo­phone regions, about nine mil­lion in pop­u­la­tion prac­tice the Eng­lish com­mon law.

Begin­ning in Octo­ber 2016, the coun­try has been the source of much break­ing inter­na­tion­al news focus­ing on a resis­tance movement–protests and civ­il disobedience–led by lawyers and teach­ers in the Eng­lish-speak­ing regions. The pro­test­ers say they oppose the use of French in court­rooms in their region of the country.

Whether efforts at nation­al inte­gra­tion have worked well in Cameroon or not is not the pur­pose of this post. And whether the gov­ern­ment has suf­fi­cient­ly dealt with issues affect­ing Anglo­phones or not is up for debate.

What is hap­pen­ing today, the inse­cu­ri­ty that has devel­oped in the coun­try is seri­ous to the extent that experts think it threat­ens the future of the coun­try. This is a great source of con­cern to many.

Boulet says that the sit­u­a­tion could deep­en. He thinks that efforts by the gov­ern­ment to min­i­mize and treat it like they have han­dled oth­er prob­lems could lead to an esca­la­tion of tensions.

As the sit­u­a­tion has deep­ened, many more civil­ians have been killed, civ­il soci­ety groups have been out­lawed, news orga­ni­za­tions have been threat­ened with poten­tial notices of clo­sure, and access to social media has been cut off or downgraded.