There’s been a slight increase in Covid-19 infections in Africa over the past few weeks, according to the latest information.

The number of daily new cases has been rising gradually after declining since mid-July, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO).

But in some countries, cases are still on a downward trend.

There was an average increase of 8% in new cases each week over the past month, according to data from the Africa CDC.

In the week up to 8 November:

Those countries with the highest average number of new cases per capita include:

Some of the most populous countries like Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria and DR Congo have also seen increases, but others like Ethiopia and South Africa have seen decreases.

Dr Nkengasong of the Africa CDC says there are three main trajectories in African countries:

“Overall, if you group these countries together, you see that the curve increased up to July, came down around September and stabilised, and now it is going up,” he says.

South Africa has had the highest recorded number of total cases and reported deaths in Africa since the pandemic began.

Daily reported numbers have been stable after falling for about four months, although there have been spikes in some provinces.

Over the past week, the number of new cases in the Eastern Cape province rose by 50%, and there has been a sustained increase in hospital admissions over the past month.

There also isolated areas that have been reporting higher than average new cases in Free State, Northern Cape, and Western Cape provinces.

The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.

The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa – more than 60% under the age of 25.

Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa.

Experts also say expertise in epidemic control from tackling other outbreaks, cross-immunity from other coronaviruses, low travel and outdoor living could also be contributing to Africa coping better.

There are also issues – as elsewhere in the world – over how countries record deaths, making comparisons between them difficult.

Research earlier this year from the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) indicated that the number of people who had died from the virus could have been higher than was reported.

It had looked at excess deaths – the difference between deaths over a particular period and the historical average – and estimated that a significant proportion were due to Covid-19.

The WHO says the testing level in Africa is still very low compared to other regions.

“Most African countries are focused on testing travellers, patients or contacts, and we estimate that a significant number of cases are still missed,” says the WHO’s Matshidiso Moeti.

Ten countries account for about 75% of the total tests conducted – South Africa, Morocco, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda and Ghana.

There are wide variations in testing rates, with South Africa doing the most and Nigeria doing relatively few per capita, according to Our World in Data, a UK-based project which collates Covid-19 information.

By 7 November, South Africa had cumulatively done just over 84 tests per 1,000 people, but that compares with more than 450 in the UK and 475 in the US by 5 November.

Nigeria had carried out just 3 tests per 1,000 people by 7 November.

A benchmark of doing at least 10 tests for every positive case is recommended by the Africa CDC, and currently there are 12 countries on the continent with a ratio lower than that.

In some countries, there’s insufficient data available on testing to know how much is being done.

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