BRUSSELS — Russia is likely to test NATO’s collective defense pledge very soon, Sweden’s top military official said, as Moscow escalates its campaign of hybrid attacks against Europe.
“I’m sure and I’m convinced that they would be ready to test Article 5 of NATO at any point in the Baltic states or in some other part of Europe as well,” Swedish Chief of Defense Gen. Michael Claesson told POLITICO, referring to the alliance’s common defense provision.
“They are prepared to take enormous strategic risks to gain whatever they see possible to gain,” he added, pointing to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s past military campaigns. “We have seen it since Chechnya, we have seen it in Georgia, we have seen it in Crimea.”
In recent months, European countries have faced an unprecedented wave of hybrid attacks, ranging from overt airspace incursions by Russian jets and drones, to the spoofing of GPS signals over the Baltic and suspicious drone incidents over military sites and airports. Just this week, the Polish government said Russian agents were behind the explosion of a rail line linking the country with Ukraine.
“This is a huge problem where they play with relatively … small means and create a lot of effects,” Claesson said.
On Wednesday, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the hybrid attacks posed an “extreme danger” to the bloc’s critical infrastructure. In response, NATO has begun moving military equipment like jets and anti-aircraft systems to the bloc’s frontline states.
EU foreign ministers will be briefed Thursday on the hybrid threat posed by Russia. “This is a very dangerous phase of escalation and we should address it really seriously because we are minutes from big casualties here,” Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told POLITICO.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto complained this week that Western countries were doing too little to counter potentially “catastrophic” Russian hybrid attacks.
Claesson warned that Moscow will not likely stop testing the alliance — whether or not a current U.S. diplomatic effort ends the war in Ukraine.
“The collective West is in a systemic conflict with Russia that will take a long time to solve,” he said. “We are basically talking about a generation … this is something that will not go away with potential ceasefire or a peace agreement in Ukraine.”
That reality should prompt a shift in priorities, he argued, given that countries are currently overly focused on the future threat of Russia’s rebuilding its conventional army instead of its ongoing attempts to exploit divisions across Europe.
Earlier this week, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Moscow may be capable of launching an attack on a NATO member state as early as 2028.
“From a theoretical standpoint, it is interesting to see when would they be able to launch a full-scale conventional military attack,” Claesson said, “but it’s taking our perspective away from the real problem that they are breaking up cohesion.”
“The polarized politics, which is a fact in many European countries today, creates … a candy shop for the hybrid warrior to exploit,” the general said. “This is a wet dream of Mr. Putin because this state of unclarity is something that always can be exploited.”
Instead, Europe must stand up to Moscow, he insisted.
“The only language which is understood is force,” Claesson said. “We have to be firm … backing off all the time is not the right answer because … it incentivizes them.”