Coronavirus: What's happening to the numbers in Africa?

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There’s been a slight increase in Covid-19 infections in Africa over the past few weeks, according to the latest information.

The number of daily new cases has been rising gradually after declining since mid-July, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO).

But in some countries, cases are still on a downward trend.

What’s happened to the numbers?

There was an average increase of 8% in new cases each week over the past month, according to data from the Africa CDC.

In the week up to 8 November:

  • new cases rose by 13% on the previous week
  • new deaths rose by 18% on the previous week

Those countries with the highest average number of new cases per capita include:

  • Morocco
  • Libya
  • Tunisia
  • Cape Verde
  • Botswana

Some of the most populous countries like Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria and DR Congo have also seen increases, but others like Ethiopia and South Africa have seen decreases.

Dr Nkengasong of the Africa CDC says there are three main trajectories in African countries:

  • Those that never flattened the curve, or had low case numbers until August when they rose significantly (Tunisia, Morocco and Libya)
  • Those that flattened the curve after cases peaked in July (South Africa and Kenya – although cases are increasing here)
  • Those that have had a sustained decline in cases over time (Senegal and Equatorial Guinea)

“Overall, if you group these countries together, you see that the curve increased up to July, came down around September and stabilised, and now it is going up,” he says.

South Africa has had the highest recorded number of total cases and reported deaths in Africa since the pandemic began.


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Confirmed cases around the world


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Source: Johns Hopkins University, national public health agencies

Figures last updated

11 November 2020, 08:20 GMT

Daily reported numbers have been stable after falling for about four months, although there have been spikes in some provinces.

Over the past week, the number of new cases in the Eastern Cape province rose by 50%, and there has been a sustained increase in hospital admissions over the past month.

There also isolated areas that have been reporting higher than average new cases in Free State, Northern Cape, and Western Cape provinces.

What about death rates in Africa?

The reported death rate per capita on the continent has been low compared with other parts of the world, despite the poor health infrastructure in many African countries.

The WHO says this could be partly because of the relatively young population in Africa – more than 60% under the age of 25.

Covid-19 is known to have a higher mortality rate for older age groups, and among people with health problems like obesity and type 2 diabetes which are also less common in Africa.

Experts also say expertise in epidemic control from tackling other outbreaks, cross-immunity from other coronaviruses, low travel and outdoor living could also be contributing to Africa coping better.

data in detail

Scroll table to see more data

*Deaths per 100,000 people

US 244,564 74.8 10,855,761
Brazil 165,658 79.1 5,848,959
India 129,635 9.6 8,814,579
Mexico 98,259 77.9 1,003,253
UK 51,766 77.1 1,344,356
Italy 44,683 73.7 1,144,552
France 44,246 68.1 1,954,599
Iran 41,034 50.2 749,525
Spain 40,769 87.3 1,458,591
Argentina 35,307 79.6 1,304,846
Peru 35,177 110.0 934,899
Colombia 33,829 68.1 1,191,634
Russia 32,885 22.6 1,910,149
South Africa 20,206 35.0 749,182
Indonesia 15,148 5.7 463,007
Chile 14,777 78.9 529,676
Belgium 14,303 124.6 531,280
Ecuador 12,997 76.1 179,627
Germany 12,511 15.1 799,733
Iraq 11,623 30.2 516,915
Turkey 11,418 13.9 411,055
Canada 10,947 29.5 295,131
Poland 10,045 26.5 691,118
Ukraine 9,904 22.4 551,533
Bolivia 8,841 77.9 143,181
Romania 8,813 45.2 353,185
Netherlands 8,446 49.5 442,613
Philippines 7,832 7.3 407,838
Pakistan 7,141 3.4 356,904
Egypt 6,442 6.5 110,547
Bangladesh 6,173 3.8 430,496
Sweden 6,164 61.8 177,355
Czech Republic 6,058 56.8 458,229
Saudi Arabia 5,641 16.7 352,950
China 4,742 0.3 91,828
Morocco 4,697 13.0 288,211
Guatemala 3,920 22.7 114,719
Switzerland 3,351 39.3 257,135
Portugal 3,305 32.2 211,266
Hungary 3,097 31.9 140,961
Panama 2,867 68.6 145,309
Honduras 2,822 29.4 102,555
Israel 2,721 32.5 323,460
Dominican Republic 2,282 21.5 133,225
Tunisia 2,279 19.7 79,339
Algeria 2,139 5.1 66,819
Bulgaria 2,091 29.7 97,435
Moldova 2,006 49.5 88,772
Ireland 1,978 41.0 67,526
Kazakhstan 1,899 10.4 120,463
Japan 1,866 1.5 117,799
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1,857 55.9 70,900
Armenia 1,763 59.7 117,337
Austria 1,746 19.6 198,291
Jordan 1,704 17.1 141,305
Afghanistan 1,617 4.4 43,240
Paraguay 1,569 22.6 71,065
Ethiopia 1,565 1.4 102,321
Myanmar 1,552 2.9 68,011
Costa Rica 1,546 30.9 123,223
Oman 1,326 27.5 119,442
North Macedonia 1,281 61.5 46,062
Kenya 1,228 2.4 69,273
Nepal 1,215 4.3 208,299
Kyrgyzstan 1,196 19.0 65,953
Nigeria 1,163 0.6 64,996
Sudan 1,116 2.7 14,401
El Salvador 1,044 16.3 36,358
Belarus 1,039 11.0 112,870
Greece 1,035 9.8 72,510
Croatia 1,006 24.2 81,844
Libya 995 14.9 72,628
Serbia 989 14.2 81,086
Azerbaijan 946 9.5 73,429
Australia 907 3.6 27,711
Venezuela 848 2.9 96,933
Kuwait 835 20.2 136,341
Lebanon 806 11.8 104,267
Kosovo 798 43.2 27,851
Slovenia 765 36.8 54,122
Denmark 757 13.2 61,078
Georgia 703 17.6 79,678
Albania 612 21.2 27,233
Yemen 605 2.1 2,072
Uzbekistan 598 1.8 70,102
Palestinian Territories 558 11.5 62,167
United Arab Emirates 528 5.5 149,135
Slovakia 510 9.4 86,767
South Korea 493 1.0 28,546
Cameroon 433 1.7 22,692
Montenegro 385 61.3 26,686
Finland 369 6.7 19,102
Zambia 350 2.0 17,097
Syria 341 2.0 6,613
Bahrain 333 21.2 84,523
Senegal 327 2.1 15,779
Angola 322 1.0 13,374
Ghana 320 1.1 50,018
DR Congo 319 0.4 11,760
Malaysia 306 1.0 46,209
Norway 294 5.5 28,434
Lithuania 266 9.5 33,387
Zimbabwe 257 1.8 8,786
Madagascar 249 0.9 17,223
Qatar 234 8.4 135,570
Haiti 232 2.1 9,168
Jamaica 229 7.8 9,780
Luxembourg 219 36.2 25,931
Malawi 185 1.0 5,964
Mauritania 165 3.7 7,948
Nicaragua 158 2.4 5,661
Bahamas 155 40.2 7,163
Uganda 144 0.3 15,789
Guadeloupe 139 34.8 8,098
Mali 139 0.7 3,868
Namibia 138 5.6 13,449
Guyana 138 17.7 4,794
Cuba 131 1.2 7,568
Ivory Coast 127 0.5 20,945
Gambia 122 5.4 3,702
Latvia 121 6.3 10,231
Eswatini 119 10.5 6,093
Suriname 114 19.8 5,274
Trinidad and Tobago 112 8.1 6,077
Mozambique 110 0.4 14,340
Somalia 107 0.7 4,301
Cape Verde 102 18.8 9,780
Chad 100 0.6 1,591
Malta 95 21.6 7,917
Congo 92 1.8 5,515
Belize 88 23.0 4,783
Tajikistan 85 0.9 11,573
Equatorial Guinea 85 6.5 5,104
Liberia 82 1.7 1,498
Estonia 81 6.1 7,637
Andorra 75 97.4 5,725
Guinea 74 0.6 12,585
Sierra Leone 74 1.0 2,391
French Guiana 70 24.7 10,844
Niger 70 0.3 1,301
Burkina Faso 68 0.3 2,635
Uruguay 64 1.9 3,957
Central African Republic 63 1.4 4,896
Djibouti 61 6.4 5,645
Togo 61 0.8 2,651
Thailand 60 0.1 3,874
South Sudan 59 0.5 3,003
Gabon 58 2.7 9,062
Sri Lanka 53 0.2 16,583
French Polynesia 53 19.1 11,706
Channel Islands 48 28.2 1,003
Mayotte 46 17.7 4,921
Aruba 44 41.6 4,658
Lesotho 44 2.1 2,041
Benin 43 0.4 2,844
Guinea-Bissau 43 2.3 2,419
Maldives 42 8.1 12,154
Rwanda 42 0.3 5,394
San Marino 42 124.3 1,253
Cyprus 39 3.3 7,051
Martinique 37 9.8 4,732
Vietnam 35 0.0 1,265
Singapore 28 0.5 58,119
Réunion 28 3.2 6,881
Botswana 27 1.2 8,225
Iceland 25 7.4 5,186
New Zealand 25 0.5 2,001
Isle of Man 25 29.7 363
Saint Martin 24 64.4 923
Tanzania 21 0.0 509
Sao Tome and Principe 16 7.6 964
Diamond Princess cruise ship 13 712
Mauritius 10 0.8 470
Bermuda 9 14.3 222
Papua New Guinea 7 0.1 600
Taiwan 7 0.0 600
Comoros 7 0.8 579
Barbados 7 2.4 249
Turks and Caicos Islands 6 15.9 720
Liechtenstein 5 13.2 970
Antigua and Barbuda 4 4.2 134
Brunei 3 0.7 148
Curaçao 2 1.2 1,307
Monaco 2 5.2 545
Saint Lucia 2 1.1 160
Fiji 2 0.2 35
MS Zaandam cruise ship 2 9
Gibraltar 1 3.0 887
Burundi 1 0.0 627
Cayman Islands 1 1.6 254
British Virgin Islands 1 3.4 71
Montserrat 1 20.0 13
Western Sahara 1 0.2 10
Faroe Islands 0 0.0 497
Eritrea 0 0.0 493
Mongolia 0 0.0 428
Bhutan 0 0.0 375
Cambodia 0 0.0 302
Seychelles 0 0.0 160
Saint Barthelemy 0 0.0 109
St Vincent and the Grenadines 0 0.0 78
Dominica 0 0.0 68
Grenada 0 0.0 32
New Caledonia 0 0.0 30
Timor-Leste 0 0.0 30
Vatican 0 0.0 27
Laos 0 0.0 24
Saint Kitts and Nevis 0 0.0 19
Greenland 0 0.0 18
Solomon Islands 0 0.0 16
Saint Pierre and Miquelon 0 0.0 16
Falkland Islands 0 0.0 15
Anguilla 0 0.0 3
Vanuatu 0 0.0 1
Marshall Islands 0 0.0 1

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This information is regularly updated but may not reflect the latest totals for each country.

** The past data for new cases is a three day rolling average. Due to revisions in the number of cases, an average cannot be calculated for this date.

Source: Johns Hopkins University, national public health agencies and UN population data

Figures last updated: 15 November 2020, 10:48 GMT

There are also issues – as elsewhere in the world – over how countries record deaths, making comparisons between them difficult.

Research earlier this year from the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC) indicated that the number of people who had died from the virus could have been higher than was reported.

It had looked at excess deaths – the difference between deaths over a particular period and the historical average – and estimated that a significant proportion were due to Covid-19.

How much testing is done in Africa?

The WHO says the testing level in Africa is still very low compared to other regions.

“Most African countries are focused on testing travellers, patients or contacts, and we estimate that a significant number of cases are still missed,” says the WHO’s Matshidiso Moeti.

Ten countries account for about 75% of the total tests conducted – South Africa, Morocco, Ethiopia, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda and Ghana.

There are wide variations in testing rates, with South Africa doing the most and Nigeria doing relatively few per capita, according to Our World in Data, a UK-based project which collates Covid-19 information.

By 7 November, South Africa had cumulatively done just over 84 tests per 1,000 people, but that compares with more than 450 in the UK and 475 in the US by 5 November.

Nigeria had carried out just 3 tests per 1,000 people by 7 November.

A benchmark of doing at least 10 tests for every positive case is recommended by the Africa CDC, and currently there are 12 countries on the continent with a ratio lower than that.

In some countries, there’s insufficient data available on testing to know how much is being done.

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